Public school enrollment statewide declined by more than 10,000 students this year, the largest dip since the pandemic, mirroring national trends, new data shows.
Read more: Birth rates, school choice contribute to falling enrollment
Oklahoma schools reported a total of 686,718 students for the state’s annual October 1 count, a 1.5% decrease compared to last school year, according to Oklahoma Department of Education data.
Enrollment decreased in every grade except 4th, 7th and 11th. The data shows steeper drops among the youngest students in pre-K through 3rd grades.
Sixteen of the 20 largest school districts enrolled fewer students this year. Norman, Deer Creek, Bixby and Epic Charter Schools were exceptions.
The decline is not unique to Oklahoma. Public school enrollment fell across the U.S. and is largely attributed to plummeting birth rates and shifting attitudes toward school post-pandemic. The U.S. fertility rate was 1.6 in 2024 — well below the 2.1 to maintain population stability.
Fewer children means fewer students. The National Center for Education Statistics projects total public school enrollment will decrease 5% between 2022 and 2031, from 49.6 million to 46.9 million students.
Families shifting to homeschool or private school could explain some of the decline, but there’s a lack of data. Oklahoma doesn’t require families to register or notify the state when they choose homeschooling.
There’s no comprehensive count of private school students, either. A report on the state’s tax credit for private school tuition shows families received credits for 39,485 students this year; 3,762 attended public school the previous semester.
Public education advocate Erin Brewer said the big picture, though, reflects real stability in public school enrollment.
“While 10,000 students sounds like a big number, statistically, and percentage-wise, it’s small, and we’re still well over the total number of students enrolled even 10 or 20 years ago,” Brewer said.
This year’s enrollment data shows small declines across the board, particularly in low-income areas. She said that tracks with families making decisions about having children based on affordability.
Oklahoma reached a high of 703,650 public school students in 2020. The next year, enrollment fell by slightly more than 9,500 students amid the pandemic.
Many families continue to embrace online learning post-pandemic. Enrollment in Oklahoma’s seven virtual charter schools is more than 37,000 students this year, nearly 5.5% of all public school students.
Thomas Dee, a professor at Stanford University, studied the shifts in school enrollment post-COVID-19. He’s concerned the downturn will put financial pressure on school districts, especially now that pandemic aid has expired and enrollment has not rebounded. Operating a school building has fixed costs, whether it’s filled with 200 students or 400 students, but fewer students means fewer dollars.
Schools are also addressing lingering academic challenges, such as learning loss and poor attendance, that require resource investments, Dee said.
“Schools should tend to core operations: effective teachers, rich academic content,” he said.
Parents will vote with their feet to find those schools, he said.
Tara Thompson, a spokeswoman for the Oklahoma Department of Education, said it’s too early to make wide, sweeping changes based on this year’s data, but it is something to monitor and be prepared to adjust to if enrollment declines persist.
“COVID disrupted so many things, it’s hard to determine what’s the new normal,” she said.
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