Heavener’s 2026–27 winter outlook

By WAYNE ADAMS

Climate Scientist

Residents of Heavener should prepare for periods of cold weather and the possibility of snow and ice during the upcoming 2026–27 winter season.

My winter outlook indicates that temperatures will begin trending colder during the fall, with the potential for the most significant cold arriving during December and January.

My projected minimum temperatures are 31°F in October, 22°F in November, 8°F in December, -4°F in January and 20°F in February.

These numbers represent the lowest temperatures that I believe could occur during each month and should not be interpreted as monthly average temperatures. January currently appears to have the greatest potential for an Arctic cold outbreak, with temperatures possibly falling to around 4 degrees below zero.

Winter precipitation will also need to be watched. For Heavener, I am forecasting the potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow during a winter-weather event.

Freezing rain is another concern, with 0.10 to 0.30 inch of ice accumulation possible. It does not take a major ice storm to create hazardous conditions. Even relatively small amounts of freezing rain can make bridges, highways and untreated rural roads dangerous.

One important factor in this year’s outlook is El Niño. El Niño occurs when waters across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, influencing atmospheric circulation and weather patterns thousands of miles away.

During El Niño winters, the jet stream and storm track often become more active across the southern United States.

Historically, strong El Niño winters can favor a wetter and more active southern storm track, increasing opportunities for winter precipitation across parts of the southern United States. However, El Niño by itself does not guarantee snow or ice in Heavener.

For a significant winter storm to occur, moisture from the southern storm track must arrive at the same time sufficiently cold air is established over eastern Oklahoma.

That interaction between cold Arctic air and an active southern storm track will be one of the primary things I will be watching this winter. Based on the data currently available to me, December through January appears to be the period of greatest concern for significant cold and possible winter weather in Heavener.

This is a seasonal outlook intended to identify potential weather patterns several months in advance. Individual snow and ice storms cannot be reliably timed this far ahead, so residents should continue following short-range forecasts and official watches and warnings as winter approaches.

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