Holiday climate outlook for Heavener

By WAYNE ADAMS, Climate Scientist

As eastern Oklahoma moves through fall and toward winter, changing seasonal patterns could produce considerable temperature swings across Heavener and Le Flore County.

Warm periods may continue well into autumn, while increasingly strong cold fronts should occasionally interrupt those warmer conditions as winter approaches.

The following represents an independent long-range climate outlook and experimental holiday forecast for Heavener.

Halloween — October 31

Forecast: 81°F / 61°F
Dry to sunny • Slim chance of rain

The period leading into Halloween is expected to remain relatively warm, although occassional autumn cold fronts may temporarily bring cooler temperatures into eastern Oklahoma.

Later October could contain extended periods of dry weather between frontal systems. If that pattern is established near the end of the month, sunshine and southerly winds could allow temperatures to climb substantially during the afternoon.

The Halloween forecast calls for a high near 81°F and a low near 61°F, placing Heavener firmly on the warm side for late October. Dry to sunny conditions are expected, although a small possibility of rainfall remains.

Thanksgiving — November 26

Forecast: 72°F / 52°F
Moderate chance of rain

November should bring greater variability as stronger weather systems begin crossing the central United States.

Heavener could experience alternating periods of chilly weather and significant warming. Southerly winds ahead of approaching weather systems can transport warmer, more humid air into southeastern Oklahoma even late in November.

The Thanksgiving forecast calls for a high near 72°F and a low near 52°F. Moisture is expected to be more available than around Halloween, producing a moderate chance of rain around the holiday period.

A strong cold front arriving earlier or later than expected would represent one of the largest uncertainties in this forecast.

Christmas Day — December 25

Forecast: 65°F / 40°F
Dry • No precipitation • No White Christmas

December should bring larger temperature swings as colder air periodically reaches eastern Oklahoma. However, those cold periods may be interrupted by substantial warming when winds return from the south.

The Christmas forecast anticipates one of those warmer intervals occurring around December 25.

A high near 65°F and low near 40°F are forecast for Heavener. No precipitation is expected on Christmas Day, and the current outlook calls for no White Christmas.

This is the longest-range and therefore most difficult of the three holiday forecasts. The timing of winter fronts will become particularly important as Christmas approaches.

A Fall and Winter of Contrasts

The overall expectation for Heavener is not continuous warmth. Instead, large swings between warm and cold periods could characterize the remainder of fall and beginning of winter.

Halloween is expected to represent the warm and dry side of the pattern. By Thanksgiving, increasing moisture and stronger weather systems could raise rainfall opportunities while temperatures remain relatively mild. By Christmas, colder outbreaks should be possible across the region, but the current forecast places Christmas Day itself within a warmer and dry interval.

These forecasts were issued well in advance so their accuracy can be evaluated after each holiday without changing the original predictions.

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